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Severity indexGeopolitical Tensions in the Taiwan Strait

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Conflict severity index

CSI · IAW

Geopolitical Tensions in the Taiwan Strait

23.0/ 100
StableRanked 17 of 18 assessed conflicts

+0.5 · worsened against the previous assessment (October 2026).

Assessed on 12 November 2026IAW
Assessment date
12 November 2026
Methodology
Version 1.0

Composition

What drives the score

The index adds up five dimensions of 20 points. The heaviest one in this assessment is shown open; each expands to show its four sub-indicators and the criterion applied.

  • Rhetoric & Threats3.0 / 4Rubric criterion: Retórica de escalada por liderazgo político-militar.
  • Military Mobilization4.0 / 6Rubric criterion: Despliegue adicional; equipamiento a zona de conflicto.
  • New Actors1.5 / 5Rubric criterion: Actores menores o mercenarios.
  • Diplomatic Failure4.5 / 5Rubric criterion: Ruptura total de negociaciones; retiro de mediadores.

Total: 23.0 out of 100. One circle equals one point.

Rationale

Assessment note

Serie retrospectiva mayo–noviembre de 2026, noviembre (al día 12) de 2026. Comienza la temporada alta de maniobras del EPL (noviembre–diciembre). Fuentes: Ficha IAW (nov. 2026); Focus Taiwan 15 oct. 2026; Taipei Times 4 nov. 2026.

Trend

How it changed month by month

Each point is a dated assessment. Horizontal lines mark the step from one band to the next.

MayJunJulAugSeptOctNov23.0

Context

Against the other conflicts

Every assessed conflict, on the same 0 to 100 scale.

  1. 01Civil War in SudanCritical88.0
  2. 02Armed Conflict in YemenSevere84.0
  3. 03State Collapse, Gang Violence and Institutional Breakdown in HaitiSevere77.0
  4. 04Armed Conflict between Israel and PalestineSevere73.0
  5. 05Political Instability and Armed Violence in South SudanSevere73.0
  6. 06Armed Crisis in the Eastern Democratic Republic of the CongoSevere73.0
  7. 07Civil War and Political Instability in MyanmarSevere71.0
  8. 08Security Crisis and Armed Conflicts in EthiopiaSevere71.0
  9. 09War between Russia and UkraineSevere70.0
  10. 10Humanitarian Emergency and Security Crisis in SomaliaHigh66.0
  11. 11Military Escalation in Southern LebanonHigh62.0
  12. 12Political Instability and Violence in AfghanistanHigh60.0
  13. 13Armed Insurgency and Terrorist Violence in NigeriaHigh57.0
  14. 14Regional War in Iran and Escalation with the U.S. and IsraelHigh55.0
  15. 15Internal Security Crisis in MexicoElevated42.0
  16. 16Territorial Disputes in the South China SeaStable24.0
  17. 17Geopolitical Tensions in the Taiwan StraitStable23.0
  18. 18Strategic Tensions between India and PakistanStable23.0

Simulation

What would happen if a dimension changed

This simulator allows you to explore hypothetical scenarios. Adjust each dimension to see how the CSI would change.

CSI simulator

What if...?

1.0

Original: 1.0

0.5

Original: 0.5

13.0

Original: 13.0

0.0

Original: 0.0

8.5

Original: 8.5

Simulated Score

23.0

Stable

Actual

23.0

Adjust the controls to explore scenarios

Breakdown

M

1.0

C

0.5

E

13.0

H

0.0

I

8.5

The CSI is documented with verifiable sources and public criteria. The full methodology describes dimensions, sub-indicators, and how scores are assigned.

Full methodology