Skip to content

Severity indexRegional War in Iran and Escalation with the U.S. and Israel

View the profile

Conflict severity index

CSI · IAW

Regional War in Iran and Escalation with the U.S. and Israel

54.5/ 100
ElevatedRanked 14 of 18 assessed conflicts

+7.5 · worsened against the previous assessment (October 2026).

Assessed on 12 November 2026IAW
Assessment date
12 November 2026
Methodology
Version 1.0

Composition

What drives the score

The index adds up five dimensions of 20 points. The heaviest one in this assessment is shown open; each expands to show its four sub-indicators and the criterion applied.

  • External Military Support5.5 / 6Rubric criterion: Tropas extranjeras combatiendo; operaciones conjuntas.
  • Sanctions4.0 / 4Rubric criterion: Comprehensivas (económicas+armas+diplomáticas) múltiples bloques.
  • International Presence3.5 / 5Rubric criterion: Misiones de observación; mediación activa (UA, OSCE, OEA).
  • Media Coverage5.0 / 5Rubric criterion: Constante en tier-1; trending global; sesiones CSNU frecuentes.

Total: 54.5 out of 100. One circle equals one point.

Rationale

Assessment note

Serie retrospectiva mayo–noviembre de 2026, noviembre (al día 12) de 2026. Nuevos ataques estadounidenses en vísperas de las elecciones; el tránsito por Ormuz se desploma (0 buques el 8 nov.); plan iraní de siete puntos y mediación de Catar sin respuesta. «Ni guerra ni paz». Fuentes: Ficha IAW (al 22 jul. 2026); Wikipedia «2026 Iran war», «September 2026 US strikes on Iran» y «2026 US naval blockade of Iran»; Al Jazeera 2, 9 y 12 nov. 2026; CBS y UPI nov. 2026; Time 22 oct. 2026.

Trend

How it changed month by month

Each point is a dated assessment. Horizontal lines mark the step from one band to the next.

405570MayJunJulAugSeptOctNov54.5

Context

Against the other conflicts

Every assessed conflict, on the same 0 to 100 scale.

  1. 01Civil War in SudanCritical88.0
  2. 02Armed Conflict in YemenSevere84.0
  3. 03State Collapse, Gang Violence and Institutional Breakdown in HaitiSevere77.0
  4. 04Armed Conflict between Israel and PalestineSevere73.0
  5. 05Political Instability and Armed Violence in South SudanSevere73.0
  6. 06Armed Crisis in the Eastern Democratic Republic of the CongoSevere73.0
  7. 07Civil War and Political Instability in MyanmarSevere71.0
  8. 08Security Crisis and Armed Conflicts in EthiopiaSevere71.0
  9. 09War between Russia and UkraineSevere70.0
  10. 10Humanitarian Emergency and Security Crisis in SomaliaHigh66.0
  11. 11Military Escalation in Southern LebanonHigh62.0
  12. 12Political Instability and Violence in AfghanistanHigh60.0
  13. 13Armed Insurgency and Terrorist Violence in NigeriaHigh57.0
  14. 14Regional War in Iran and Escalation with the U.S. and IsraelHigh55.0
  15. 15Internal Security Crisis in MexicoElevated42.0
  16. 16Territorial Disputes in the South China SeaStable24.0
  17. 17Geopolitical Tensions in the Taiwan StraitStable23.0
  18. 18Strategic Tensions between India and PakistanStable23.0

Simulation

What would happen if a dimension changed

This simulator allows you to explore hypothetical scenarios. Adjust each dimension to see how the CSI would change.

CSI simulator

What if...?

9.5

Original: 9.5

4.5

Original: 4.5

15.5

Original: 15.5

7.0

Original: 7.0

18.0

Original: 18.0

Simulated Score

54.5

Elevated

Actual

54.5

Adjust the controls to explore scenarios

Breakdown

M

9.5

C

4.5

E

15.5

H

7.0

I

18.0

The CSI is documented with verifiable sources and public criteria. The full methodology describes dimensions, sub-indicators, and how scores are assigned.

Full methodology