Severity indexWar between Russia and Ukraine
View the profileConflict severity index
CSI · IAWWar between Russia and Ukraine
+1.0 · worsened against the previous assessment (October 2026).
- Assessment date
- 12 November 2026
- Methodology
- Version 1.0
Composition
What drives the score
The index adds up five dimensions of 20 points. The heaviest one in this assessment is shown open; each expands to show its four sub-indicators and the criterion applied.
- Combat Frequency5.0 / 5Rubric criterion: Combates diarios en múltiples frentes.
- Weaponry Used5.0 / 5Rubric criterion: Aviación + artillería pesada + blindados combinados.
- Battle-Related Deaths5.0 / 5Rubric criterion: >1,000 bajas/mes.
- Disputed Territory3.5 / 5Rubric criterion: 20–50%; múltiples regiones.
Total: 70.0 out of 100. One circle equals one point.
Rationale
Assessment note
Serie retrospectiva mayo–noviembre de 2026, noviembre (al día 12) de 2026. Bombardeo de Komyshuvakha (2 nov.): al menos 55 muertos. Tres de las cinco centrales térmicas de Kyiv detenidas. Ronda trilateral en Abu Dabi (10–11 nov.), sin alto el fuego. Fuentes: Ficha IAW (nov. 2026); HRMMU/ACNUDH (sep. y oct. 2026); ACLED; NPR 3 nov. 2026; Kyiv Post nov. 2026; parte semanal de Y. Rouillé (W45).
Trend
How it changed month by month
Each point is a dated assessment. Horizontal lines mark the step from one band to the next.
Context
Against the other conflicts
Every assessed conflict, on the same 0 to 100 scale.
- 01Civil War in SudanCritical88.0
- 02Armed Conflict in YemenSevere84.0
- 03State Collapse, Gang Violence and Institutional Breakdown in HaitiSevere77.0
- 04Armed Conflict between Israel and PalestineSevere73.0
- 05Political Instability and Armed Violence in South SudanSevere73.0
- 06Armed Crisis in the Eastern Democratic Republic of the CongoSevere73.0
- 07Civil War and Political Instability in MyanmarSevere71.0
- 08Security Crisis and Armed Conflicts in EthiopiaSevere71.0
- 09War between Russia and UkraineSevere70.0
- 10Humanitarian Emergency and Security Crisis in SomaliaHigh66.0
- 11Military Escalation in Southern LebanonHigh62.0
- 12Political Instability and Violence in AfghanistanHigh60.0
- 13Armed Insurgency and Terrorist Violence in NigeriaHigh57.0
- 14Regional War in Iran and Escalation with the U.S. and IsraelHigh55.0
- 15Internal Security Crisis in MexicoElevated42.0
- 16Territorial Disputes in the South China SeaStable24.0
- 17Geopolitical Tensions in the Taiwan StraitStable23.0
- 18Strategic Tensions between India and PakistanStable23.0
Simulation
What would happen if a dimension changed
This simulator allows you to explore hypothetical scenarios. Adjust each dimension to see how the CSI would change.
CSI simulator
What if...?
Original: 18.5
Original: 16.5
Original: 11.5
Original: 6.5
Original: 17.0
Simulated Score
Severe
Actual
70.0
Adjust the controls to explore scenarios
Breakdown
M
18.5
C
16.5
E
11.5
H
6.5
I
17.0
The CSI is documented with verifiable sources and public criteria. The full methodology describes dimensions, sub-indicators, and how scores are assigned.
Full methodology