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IAW AnalysisIran · Medio Oriente

Regional War in Iran

Military escalation with the United States and Israel, impacting energy, trade, and regional stability

Last update:

Internally displaced
250K+
Estimated deaths
3.5K+
Food insecurity (IPC 3+)
12M
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Overview

A confrontation between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the US-Israel axis over Iran's nuclear program and its regional network of allies, overlaid on a domestic crisis of legitimacy, repression and economic decline. The June 2025 war — Israeli and US strikes on Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan — degraded but did not eliminate the nuclear program: most of the 60% enriched uranium survived, the IAEA lost verification capacity, and attention shifted to never-inspected facilities such as Kuh-e Kolang (Pickaxe Mountain).

After the UN sanctions snapback (September 2025) and a second US-Israeli offensive in February 2026, successive attempts at a deal — including the June 2026 Trump-Pezeshkian memorandum — repeatedly collapsed, and as of mid-2026 the conflict is in an active combat phase with cross-strikes in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Domestically, the regime combines intensified repression, recurrent protests and an open succession debate around Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with the economy strangled by blockade and sanctions.

As of 22 July 2026 the conflict between Iran, the United States and Israel is in an active combat phase following the collapse of the June preliminary agreement. After Iran attacked three commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on 7 July, Washington resumed an air campaign on 8 July that by 21 July had reached ten consecutive nights of strikes against air defenses, command centers, bridges, rail lines and critical infrastructure in southern Iran, including a desalination plant in Jask that left some 10,000 people without water. Iran retaliated with drones and missiles against Gulf states: power and desalination plants in Kuwait, Bahrain's Sheikh Isa Air Base and a US fuel pier, plus fires on two tankers in Hormuz. President Trump is threatening to strike the underground Kuh-e Kolang (Pickaxe Mountain) complex adjacent to Natanz "very heavily" and "pretty soon," which Tehran denounces as a pretext for further attacks.

Impact and costs of the conflict

The human, nuclear and social cost of the confrontation with the US and Israel.

3.468+

Deaths from strikes (as of Jun 2026)

Iranian Health Ministry; includes 376 children. Over 26,500 injured.

~265-287 kg

Remaining 60% uranium (est.)

Grossi/ISIS estimate of the Isfahan stock; no IAEA verification since February.

20

Sites without IAEA access

Declared facilities blocked from inspection; only Bushehr refueling is observed.

1,1M+

Afghans deported (2025)

Mass deportations between March and July 2025, in parallel with domestic repression.

Actor map

Who faces whom.

Every actor with what they control and what they are after, and the ties of support and hostility that bind them to the rest. The camps are not assigned by hand: they come from the alliances and enmities recorded in the profile.

Around IRGC

Around United States

No declared alignment

Circle size shows relative influence; the amber arc, the share of territory under control. Camps are computed from the alliances and enmities declared in each profile.

History4 milestones

Timeline — Key phases

The conflict as process. Each event: context, actors and consequences.

1979-1997 — 2022-2026

  1. Revolutionary transformation of Iran

    Islamic Revolution and Khomeini Era

    Iranian Revolution overthrows Shah; Islamic Republic established under Ayatollah Khomeini

    Actors: Khomeini, Revolutionary Guards, Islamic clergy, women's rights activists, secular opposition Consequences: Iran transforms into theocratic state; mandatory hijab laws enacted; women's rights curtailed; opposition suppressed

  2. Periods of openness and backlash

    Reform Period and Green Movement

    Election of reformist president Khatami; some relaxation of restrictions; 2009 disputed election triggers Green Movement

    Actors: President Khatami, reformists, Supreme Leader Khamenei, conservative clergy, Green Movement protesters Consequences: Brief opening of civil society space; 2009 brutal crackdown leaves hundreds dead and thousands detained

  3. Consolidation of authoritarian control

    Hardline Era and Nuclear Program Escalation

    Ahmadinejad presidency; severe international sanctions over nuclear program; JCPOA signed 2015, abandoned 2018

    Actors: Supreme Leader Khamenei, Revolutionary Guards, IRGC-affiliated militias, international community, protest movements Consequences: Deepening economic crisis, mass surveillance expanded, LGBTQ+ persecution intensified, women's rights further restricted

  4. Mass civil unrest and unprecedented crackdown

    Mahsa Amini Protests and Systemic Repression

    Death of Mahsa Amini in police custody sparks nationwide protests demanding regime change; Revolutionary Guards respond with lethal force

    Actors: Protesters (women, youth, minorities), Revolutionary Guards, IRGC, government security forces, international human rights monitors Consequences: 500+ killed, 14,000+ arrested, mass executions of protesters, death sentences, internet shutdowns, unprecedented scale of unrest
Monitoring indicators

Concrete signals the editorial team monitors to anticipate phase changes.

  • Kuh-e Kolang (Pickaxe Mountain)

    Worsening

    Continuous construction at the never-inspected complex; a US strike would mark the biggest escalation since June 2025.

  • Strait of Hormuz

    Worsening

    Tanker attacks and naval blockade: each incident drags in the Gulf states and the oil market.

  • Status of the Trump-Pezeshkian MoU

    Worsening

    'Over' for Washington, 'suspended' for Tehran: the ambiguity leaves a door to reviving the negotiated track.

  • Succession debate and internal cohesion

    Worsening

    Open succession debate in state media, bazaar protests and diplomatic defections: regime stability is the underlying variable.

Status of this profile

Coverage level

Active monitoring · review overdue

This profile is reviewed every week. New events are added to the timeline with their source, and the severity assessment is recalculated on the stated cadence.

Last reviewed: Jul 22, 2026.

This profile's review is overdue against the frequency we state (14 days of grace). We show it rather than hold up a promise we did not keep.

We publish how complete each profile is. These are the points of our editorial policy that can be checked against the data on file.

7 of 8 checks

  • Conflict summary writtenDone
  • Timeline with 10 dated events or morePending
  • Conflict actors on fileDone
  • Conflict status assignedDone
  • 8 sources cited or moreDone
  • Every published figure with its source and dateDone
  • Geolocation on fileDone
  • Historical and political context writtenDone

Four further policy points — per-claim verification and traceability, naming review and cross-review — are checked by hand and are not part of this count.

Sources & methodology

Data on Iran's political instability comes from Amnesty International documentation, Human Rights Watch reports, the Iran Human Rights Monitor, UN fact-finding mission reports, UNHCR refugee data, and independent international media coverage. Death figures from protests vary between 500-600 depending on source, reflecting difficulties in independent verification. Economic data comes from IMF analysis and sanctions reports. Analysis acknowledges the difficulty of obtaining independently verified information from within Iran due to media restrictions.

Key sources

Iran stands at a historical crossroads. The 2022 Mahsa Amini protests revealed deep discontent with the theocratic system, particularly among women, youth, and minorities. The regime has responded with brutal repression, including executions of protesters, but has been unable to fully suppress the protest movement. Simultaneously, Iran's nuclear program continues accelerating, in apparent response to international isolation and domestic tensions. The combination of internal political crisis, economic collapse, and potential regional conflict escalation represents a volatile situation with severe humanitarian consequences. The regime's fate and its regional impact will remain uncertain in coming years.

International Affairs Watch

Corrections

If you found a wrong figure, a shifted date or a source that no longer says what it said, tell us. We check it and, where warranted, the profile is corrected with the update date left visible.