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IAW AnalysisHaiti · Latin America

State Collapse, Gang Violence and Institutional Breakdown in Haiti

Collapse of public order, territorial expansion of armed groups and fragile political transition in the most vulnerable state in the Western Hemisphere.

Last update:

Internally displaced
1.5M+
Estimated deaths
5.2K+
Food insecurity (IPC 3+)
5.9M
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Overview

A state-collapse crisis in which armed gang coalitions — unified since 2023-2024 under the Viv Ansanm alliance led by Jimmy "Barbecue" Chérizier — went from controlling neighborhoods of Port-au-Prince to dominating the capital, its access routes, the main port and strategic corridors, displacing a state without an elected president since the assassination of Jovenel Moïse (2021) and without a functional parliament. The violence combines a criminal economy (extortion, kidnapping, route control), mass attacks on the population and child recruitment.

Since 2024 the international community has tried escalating responses: the Kenya-led Multinational Security Support Mission (2024-2026) and, since September 2025, the Security Council-authorized Gang Suppression Force (GSF), deploying gradually alongside the UN Support Office in Haiti (UNSOH). The political transition — now headed by Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé after the Transitional Presidential Council dissolved in February 2026 — has yet to deliver the first elections since 2016, while the country records record internal displacement (nearly 1.5 million) and food insecurity affecting more than half the population.

As of 22 July 2026, the Viv Ansanm gang coalition led by Jimmy "Barbecue" Chérizier remains the dominant force in Port-au-Prince, controlling the main port and most of the metropolitan area. According to the BINUH/OHCHR quarterly report published on 8 May 2026, at least 1,642 people were killed and 745 injured between January and March 2026; 69% of casualties are attributed to security force operations against gangs, including explosive drone strikes operated by private contractor Vectus Global (at least 69 civilians killed or injured, including five children). Operations contained gang territorial expansion in the capital's core, but violence shifted to the Artibonite and Centre departments: coordinated attacks on 16 Lower Artibonite localities on 29-31 March left 83 dead.

Humanitarian impact

The humanitarian crisis is not a byproduct — it is a central feature of the conflict.

1.5M+

Internally displaced

OIM (IOM) · June 2026

85K+

Refugees / cross-border displaced

UNHCR · October 2025

5.9M

Population facing acute food insecurity (IPC 3+, estimate)

IPC (proyección marzo-junio 2026) · October 2025

5.2K+

Estimated fatalities

UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) · December 2025

Actor map

Who faces whom.

Every actor with what they control and what they are after, and the ties of support and hostility that bind them to the rest. The camps are not assigned by hand: they come from the alliances and enmities recorded in the profile.

Around Viv Ansanm

Around Haitian National Police + contractors

Circle size shows relative influence; the amber arc, the share of territory under control. Camps are computed from the alliances and enmities declared in each profile.

Conflict Severity Index

IAW methodology — 5 dimensions, 20 sub-indicators

0/100
Critical ↑

Conflict Severity Index

Military Intensity
12
Civilian Impact
16
Escalation Risk
13
Humanitarian Access
16
Internationalization
13
Trend
View detailed CSI analysis
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History4 milestones

Timeline — Key phases

The conflict as process. Each event: context, actors and consequences.

2021-2022 — 2026-outlook

  1. Post-assassination power vacuum

    Institutional Collapse Begins

    President Jovenel Moïse assassination in July 2021 created political vacuum. Gang violence escalated rapidly as state capacity deteriorated.

    Actors: Armed gangs, government security forces, political factions Consequences: Gang territory expanded; police capacity overwhelmed; over 1,000 deaths recorded

  2. Regional security mission authorized

    Escalation and MSS Deployment

    Gang violence reached critical levels. UN Security Council authorized Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission. Kenya deployed 2,500 troops beginning 2024.

    Actors: Kenya Defense Forces, G9 gang federation, Haitian National Police, international partners Consequences: Initial security gains in Port-au-Prince; humanitarian access improved; 2,000+ deaths in 2024

  3. Food insecurity crisis; security improvements

    Humanitarian Emergency and Stabilization Efforts

    While MSS operations have reduced gang activity in Port-au-Prince, humanitarian situation deteriorated. 5.2M people face food insecurity. Fuel shortages persist.

    Actors: WFP, OCHA, medical organizations, transitional government, gang factions Consequences: Massive displacement; cholera re-emergence concerns; international humanitarian aid critical

  4. Planned democratic transition

    Transition and Recovery Phase

    Elections planned for 2026. International community maintains pressure for good governance. Reconstruction needs enormous. Regional integration efforts ongoing.

    Actors: Transitional government, CARICOM, OAS, international donors, civil society Consequences: Long-term stability dependent on institution-building; gang networks remain threat
Monitoring indicators

Concrete signals the editorial team monitors to anticipate phase changes.

  • GSF deployment

    Improving

    Arrival pace of the 5,550 authorized personnel; full operational capacity expected only by October 2026.

  • Violence spreading beyond the capital

    Worsening

    Coordinated attacks in Artibonite and Centre: containment in Port-au-Prince displaces rather than reduces violence.

  • Electoral timeline

    Stable

    Voter registration postponed by the Fils-Aimé/CEP dispute; no elections since 2016 and no firm start date.

  • Civilian casualties in drone operations

    Stable

    Strikes by contractor Vectus Global have already left dozens of civilians dead or injured, eroding the offensive's legitimacy.

Status of this profile

Coverage level

Active monitoring · review overdue

This profile is reviewed every week. New events are added to the timeline with their source, and the severity assessment is recalculated on the stated cadence.

Last reviewed: Jul 22, 2026.

This profile's review is overdue against the frequency we state (14 days of grace). We show it rather than hold up a promise we did not keep.

We publish how complete each profile is. These are the points of our editorial policy that can be checked against the data on file.

7 of 8 checks

  • Conflict summary writtenDone
  • Timeline with 10 dated events or morePending
  • Conflict actors on fileDone
  • Conflict status assignedDone
  • 8 sources cited or moreDone
  • Every published figure with its source and dateDone
  • Geolocation on fileDone
  • Historical and political context writtenDone

Four further policy points — per-claim verification and traceability, naming review and cross-review — are checked by hand and are not part of this count.

Sources & methodology

Data presented in this analysis derives from verified sources including OCHA, IOM, UNHCR, and human rights reports. Statistics reflect estimates as of January 2026. Scenario analyses are based on expert assessments of regional security dynamics.

Key sources

Haiti's crisis represents one of the Western Hemisphere's most critical humanitarian challenges. With 5.2 million people facing food insecurity and 750,000 internally displaced, the situation requires a sustained and committed international response. The success of Kenya-led security operations will be crucial for long-term stabilization.

International Affairs Watch

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Corrections

If you found a wrong figure, a shifted date or a source that no longer says what it said, tell us. We check it and, where warranted, the profile is corrected with the update date left visible.