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IAW AnalysisMexico · Latin America

Mexico Drug Violence

Two decades of criminal conflict and synthetic drugs

Last update:

Internally displaced
420K+
Estimated deaths
9K+
Food insecurity (IPC 3+)
8.5M
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Overview

A large-scale criminal conflict between the Mexican state and drug-trafficking organizations — and among the latter — that since 2006 has left more than 400,000 homicides and over 100,000 disappeared. The two dominant poles, the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), fight over routes, diversified illegal economies (fentanyl, extortion, fuel theft, mining) and territorial control, with the Sinaloa Cartel's internal war — unleashed in 2024 after the capture of 'El Mayo' Zambada — as the bloodiest front.

Claudia Sheinbaum's security policy, built on intelligence and high-value arrests under Omar García Harfuch, has produced the largest homicide drop in a decade, though it coexists with elevated disappearances and deepening militarization. The US dimension has become structural: the cartels were designated foreign terrorist organizations, dozens of kingpins were handed over to US justice — including Zambada, sentenced to life in 2026 — and the Trump administration presses with tariffs and the threat of direct military action, which Mexico rejects on sovereignty grounds.

Two years after the capture of Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada (July 2024), the Sinaloa Cartel's internal war has mutated from a binary Mayiza-Chapiza clash into fragmentation among four factions and more than twenty armed cells, according to press mapping from July 2026. The Mayiza (Los Mayos) is on the offensive and controls most of Culiacán and the center-south of the state after seizing strongholds such as Villa Juárez and Jesús María; Los Chapitos, in retreat, retain Mazatlán and southern corridors; the faction of Fausto Isidro Meza "Chapo Isidro" dominates the north (Ahome, Guasave, El Fuerte) with relative stability, and Aureliano "El Guano" Guzmán operates without fixed territory. In June 2026 the federal government acknowledged for the first time that the CJNG is militarily backing Los Chapitos, nationalizing the Sinaloa conflict: the CJNG remains the country's most territorially expansive organization, with active theaters in Michoacán, Guanajuato, Jalisco and Chiapas.

Impact and security metrics

The criminal conflict's cost is measured in homicides, disappearances and displacement — not battlefronts.

~9.000

Intentional homicides (Jan-Jun 2026)

SESNSP: 49.7 daily average; June was the lowest month since 2015 (45.4).

-48%

Homicide drop (Sep 2024-Jun 2026)

Reduction reported by the security cabinet under the Harfuch strategy.

15.795+

Displaced by violence (2025)

Universidad Iberoamericana: 73 episodes; no official federal figures.

59.582

Cumulative arrests

Plus 2,627 labs dismantled and 31,000 weapons seized under the Sheinbaum administration.

Actor map

Who faces whom.

Every actor with what they control and what they are after, and the ties of support and hostility that bind them to the rest. The camps are not assigned by hand: they come from the alliances and enmities recorded in the profile.

Around Mexican government (Sheinbaum)

Around CJNG

No declared alignment

Circle size shows relative influence; the amber arc, the share of territory under control. Camps are computed from the alliances and enmities declared in each profile.

Severity index

No severity index: the CSI is a dated measurement and we publish it only where there is weekly monitoring. The profile explains the conflict through context, actors and sources.

History4 milestones

Timeline — Key phases

The conflict as process. Each event: context, actors and consequences.

2006-2012 — 2022-present

  1. Calderon administration military offensive

    War on Drugs Launch and Cartel Fragmentation

    President Felipe Calderón deployed military against cartels. Sinaloa Cartel gained dominance after eliminating competitors. Violence escalated dramatically with 60,000+ deaths.

    Actors: Mexican Armed Forces, Sinaloa Cartel, competing criminal organizations, government Consequences: Severe cartel fragmentation; massive violence; displaced populations; institutional corruption exposed

  2. New cartel dominance and territorial conflicts

    CJNG Rise and Market Consolidation

    CJNG emerged from Sinaloa splinter groups and rapidly expanded. New cartel wars over territory and drug routes. Deaths averaged 15,000+ annually. Synthetic drugs (fentanyl) began entering market.

    Actors: CJNG, Sinaloa Cartel, government forces, Gulf Cartel, Los Zetas splinters Consequences: Territorial reshuffling; increased femicide and sexual violence; corruption of state governments

  3. Synthetic drugs dominate; organized cartels professionalize

    Fentanyl Crisis and Professionalization

    Fentanyl replaced heroin as primary US opioid. Cartels became more disciplined and business-oriented. Violence shifted from cartel wars to territorial control and US distribution networks. 25,000+ deaths annually.

    Actors: Sinaloa (now under Ismael "El Mayo" leadership), CJNG, government security forces, Chinese precursor suppliers Consequences: US opioid epidemic accelerates; Mexican government institutional reforms; mass displacement increases

  4. Cartels challenge state authority; fentanyl dominates

    Cartel Evolution and State Conflict

    Cartels now wield significant territorial control rivaling state authority in some regions. Fentanyl production in Mexico has become primary source for US market. Violence reaching 32,000+ deaths annually.

    Actors: Sinaloa Cartel, CJNG, Mexican Armed Forces, National Guard, US federal agencies (DEA, ATF) Consequences: Institutional challenges to Mexican authority; massive US-Mexico coordination; femicide epidemic continues; migration surge
Monitoring indicators

Concrete signals the editorial team monitors to anticipate phase changes.

  • Sinaloa Cartel internal war

    Stable

    Four factions and 20+ cells: fragmentation may reduce the violence's scale or multiply its hotspots.

  • Nationalization of the conflict via CJNG

    Worsening

    CJNG backing for the Chapitos links the Sinaloa war to the Jalisco, Michoacán and Guanajuato theaters.

  • US military action threat

    Stable

    Trump vowed to 'hit land' targets; a unilateral strike on Mexican soil would break the cooperation framework.

  • Disappearances and mass graves

    Stable

    The homicide drop coexists with high disappearances: the indicator that validates (or refutes) the real improvement.

Status of this profile

Coverage level

Open conflict · as of Jul 22, 2026

An open conflict we analyse but do not follow day to day. This profile gathers the context, actors and sources verified up to the cut-off date, and publishes no severity index: we do not add new events or recalculate the CSI unless the conflict escalates and we reactivate it. We say so plainly so you know what you are reading.

Last reviewed: Jul 22, 2026.

We publish how complete each profile is. These are the points of our editorial policy that can be checked against the data on file.

7 of 8 checks

  • Conflict summary writtenDone
  • Timeline with 10 dated events or morePending
  • Conflict actors on fileDone
  • Conflict status assignedDone
  • 8 sources cited or moreDone
  • Every published figure with its source and dateDone
  • Geolocation on fileDone
  • Historical and political context writtenDone

Four further policy points — per-claim verification and traceability, naming review and cross-review — are checked by hand and are not part of this count.

Sources & methodology

Data in this analysis derives from Mexico's SSPC, UNODC, US agencies (DEA, FBI), and human rights organizations. Statistics reflect estimates as of January 2026. Analyses incorporate regional security reports and cartel monitoring.

Key sources

Organized crime violence in Mexico represents one of the hemisphere's greatest security threats. With 32,500 annual deaths and a fentanyl epidemic deeply affecting the United States, the situation requires an integrated approach combining Mexican institutional reforms with US cooperation and precursor control. The future depends on institutional capacity and political will.

International Affairs Watch

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Corrections

If you found a wrong figure, a shifted date or a source that no longer says what it said, tell us. We check it and, where warranted, the profile is corrected with the update date left visible.