Political Instability and Armed Violence in South Sudan

A chronic crisis of the world's youngest state (independent since 2011), structured around the rivalry between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, which already produced the 2013-2018 civil war (nearly 400,000 dead). The 2018 peace agreement was never implemented in its core pillars — army unification, a permanent constitution, elections — and effectively collapsed in March 2025 with Machar's arrest, now on trial for treason, and renewed fighting between the army (SSPDF) and forces aligned with the SPLA-IO and the Nuer White Army in Jonglei and Upper Nile.

The country approaches the elections promised for December 2026 — the first in its history — without a census, without a permanent constitution and with a decapitated opposition, amid a humanitarian crisis carrying localized famine risk, 2.5 million internally displaced and the spillover of Sudan's war: more than 650,000 refugees hosted and an oil economy broken by that conflict. Ugandan troops prop up Kiir, while the UN, AU and IGAD warn of the greatest risk of a return to civil war since 2018.

The political crisis between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar remains the core driver of instability. Machar has been detained since March 26, 2025 and, together with seven co-accused, faces charges of treason, murder and crimes against humanity before the Special Court on the Incident of Nasir, over the March 2025 uprising in which Lieutenant General Majur Dak was killed. The trial, opened in September 2025, was still ongoing in July 2026 at the defence stage: as of July 19, 2026 (97th session) the court ordered the remaining accused to continue their defence through oral testimony. Machar's faction has declared the 2018 peace agreement 'abrogated', and its core provisions — army unification, a permanent constitution and elections — remain unimplemented. The government has set the country's first general elections for December 22, 2026, and on July 1, 2026 parliament approved amendments removing the census and permanent-constitution prerequisites; the Council of Political Parties warned of a shortfall close to 60% of its operational budget, and the opposition argues that voting without implementing the accord would push the country 'toward greater chaos'.