Humanitarian Emergency and Security Crisis in Somalia

A combined crisis of jihadist insurgency, state fragility and climate emergency running since the state's collapse in 1991. Al-Shabaab, an Al Qaeda affiliate, controls broad rural areas of the center-south and has sustained a counteroffensive since 2025 that reversed much of the government's 2022-2023 gains, while in Puntland an Islamic State affiliate resists the siege of regional forces backed by the US and UAE.

The federal state, propped up by the African Union mission (AUSSOM, successor to ATMIS) and the US air campaign, also faces a constitutional crisis: the extension of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's term and the postponement of the 2026 elections escalated into armed clashes in Mogadishu between government forces and opposition-aligned militias, with Puntland and Jubaland disowning the central government. Recurrent drought and defunded aid — with 6.5 million people acutely food insecure and 3.4 million displaced — complete one of the world's most protracted humanitarian crises, while AUSSOM's future hangs on a structural funding shortfall.

Military dynamics: al-Shabaab retains the initiative gained through its counteroffensive launched in February 2025, which recovered most of the territory it had lost since 2022 in Middle Shabelle — including Adan Yabaal in April 2025 — and allowed it to pressure Hiiraan and the approaches to Mogadishu. In response, the Somali National Army launched Operation Badr in March 2026 alongside AUSSOM, retaking Hawaadley (Middle Shabelle, announced 11 March 2026) and the towns of Daarusalaam and Mubarak in Lower Shabelle. The group's attacks on army and AUSSOM bases continued through the second quarter, and the US maintains its air campaign: AFRICOM conducted a strike against al-Shabaab near Jamame (60 km northeast of Kismayo) on 4 July 2026. In Puntland, regional forces — some 3,000 troops deployed since January 2025 under Operation Hillaac, with US and Emirati air support — continue tightening the noose on ISIS-Somalia in the Cal Miskaad mountains; the group is in retreat but retains harassment capacity.