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IAW AnalysisIsrael

Armed Conflict between Israel and Palestine

This conflict profile is being developed by IAW analysts

Last update:

Internally displaced
1.9M+
Estimated deaths
73.3K+
Food insecurity (IPC 3+)
1.6M
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Overview

A conflict of more than seven decades over land and self-determination between Israel and the Palestinian people, whose most devastating phase opened on 7 October 2023 with the Hamas attack (some 1,200 killed and 251 hostages) and the ensuing Israeli war on Gaza: more than 73,000 Palestinians killed according to Gaza's Health Ministry, the Strip devastated — with reconstruction needs estimated at $71.4 billion — and a famine declared and later reversed in 2025.

The October 2025 ceasefire, built on Trump's 20-point plan and endorsed by Security Council resolution 2803, halted the large-scale war but left a jammed process: Hamas dissolved its government yet conditions disarmament on recognition of a Palestinian state, Israel controls most of the Strip behind the 'yellow line', the international stabilization force deploys at a trickle and reconstruction has barely begun. In the West Bank, meanwhile, settlement expansion and settler violence fuel warnings of de facto annexation eroding the viability of the two-state solution.

The Gaza ceasefire, in effect since 10 October 2025 and endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2803 (17 November 2025), formally holds but continues to erode. According to the Gaza Ministry of Health, as of 20 July 2026, 1,158 Palestinians had been killed and 3,756 injured since the truce began, with recurrent Israeli fire against people crossing the so-called 'yellow line'. Israel expanded territorial control beyond agreed limits: the IDF controlled 64% of the Strip by late April 2026 and Netanyahu ordered expansion to 70% on 28 May, with some 40 military outposts established, eight of them built after the ceasefire. Concerns persist over a renewed offensive ahead of Israel's 27 October 2026 elections.

Humanitarian impact

The humanitarian crisis is not a byproduct — it is a central feature of the conflict.

1.9M+

Internally displaced

Evaluación Rápida de Daños y Necesidades (RDNA) UE/ONU/Banco Mundial · April 2026

1.6M

Population facing acute food insecurity (IPC 3+, estimate)

IPC (proyección dic. 2025 - abr. 2026, fase 3 o superior) · December 2025

73.3K+

Estimated fatalities

Ministerio de Salud de Gaza (acumulado desde octubre de 2023) · July 2026

Actor map

Who faces whom.

Every actor with what they control and what they are after, and the ties of support and hostility that bind them to the rest. The camps are not assigned by hand: they come from the alliances and enmities recorded in the profile.

Around Israel (IDF)

Around Hamas

No declared alignment

Circle size shows relative influence; the amber arc, the share of territory under control. Camps are computed from the alliances and enmities declared in each profile.

Severity index

The severity index is published only on profiles under weekly monitoring: it is a dated measurement and we do not display it where we do not recalculate it.

History1 milestones

Timeline — Key phases

The conflict as process. Each event: context, actors and consequences.

  1. This section will be populated with historical phases

    Phase Title - Pending Development

    Placeholder text for timeline context

    Actors: Key actors to be identified Consequences: Consequences to be documented
Monitoring indicators

Concrete signals the editorial team monitors to anticipate phase changes.

  • Yellow-line incidents

    Stable

    1,158 killed since the ceasefire: the tempo of Israeli fire at crossings defines whether the truce holds.

  • Hamas disarmament

    Stable

    Government dissolved but weapons conditioned on statehood recognition: the knot of the plan's phase two.

  • ISF deployment

    Improving

    Scaled to a planned 5,000 with delays; without the stabilization force there are no sustainable Israeli withdrawals.

  • De facto annexation in the West Bank

    Worsening

    Rising settler violence and settlement expansion; they erode the viability of any final agreement.

Status of this profile

Coverage level

Periodic review · review overdue

This profile is reviewed once a month: the situation overview and figures are updated if they changed. Between reviews there may be relevant events not yet incorporated. We do not publish a severity index: the CSI requires the weekly monitoring this profile does not have.

Last reviewed: Jul 22, 2026.

This profile's review is overdue against the frequency we state (45 days of grace). We show it rather than hold up a promise we did not keep.

We publish how complete each profile is. These are the points of our editorial policy that can be checked against the data on file.

7 of 8 checks

  • Conflict summary writtenDone
  • Timeline with 10 dated events or morePending
  • Conflict actors on fileDone
  • Conflict status assignedDone
  • 8 sources cited or moreDone
  • Every published figure with its source and dateDone
  • Geolocation on fileDone
  • Historical and political context writtenDone

Four further policy points — per-claim verification and traceability, naming review and cross-review — are checked by hand and are not part of this count.

Sources & methodology

Methodology pending: This profile is in initial development. As research is completed, full documentation of data sources, analysis methods, and information limitations will be provided.

Key sources

This conflict profile is being developed by International Affairs Watch analysts. As research is completed, all data, scenarios, and indicators will be updated with verified information and in-depth analysis. Users are invited to return once the profile is fully developed.

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Corrections

If you found a wrong figure, a shifted date or a source that no longer says what it said, tell us. We check it and, where warranted, the profile is corrected with the update date left visible.