Political Instability and Violence in Afghanistan

An open crisis since the Taliban takeover of August 2021, following the US withdrawal and the republic's collapse. The Islamic Emirate governs without broad international recognition — only Russia formalized it in 2025 — imposes the world's most severe system of female exclusion, and faces the threat of Islamic State-Khorasan (ISKP) and low-intensity pockets of armed resistance.

Overlaid on the governance crisis is a structural humanitarian emergency — more than 20 million people need assistance amid shrinking funding — aggravated by mass forced returns from Iran and Pakistan (nearly 3 million in 2025 alone) and recurrent earthquakes. Since late 2025, the escalation with Pakistan over TTP sanctuaries has become the dominant security dynamic: cross-border strikes, closed trade crossings and hundreds of civilian casualties, with intermittent Chinese mediation and no stable de-escalation mechanism.

The security dynamic in April-July 2026 is dominated by escalation with Pakistan rather than by the internal insurgency. Following Pakistan's February 27, 2026 declaration of "open war" and the launch of Operation Ghazab-ul-Haq — including the March 16 airstrike on the Omid drug rehabilitation hospital in Kabul that killed at least 269 people — the Security Council recorded more than 750 civilians killed or injured by cross-border violence in January-March alone. China-mediated talks in Urumqi (April 1-7) temporarily reduced strikes, but the lull collapsed: on June 29 Pakistan struck eastern Afghan provinces (Islamabad claimed 25-29 militants killed; the Taliban reported 36 civilian deaths), on July 1 Afghan forces launched drones into Pakistani territory — four shot down according to Pakistan — and on July 8 fresh border clashes killed at least 28 civilians and injured 49 in the east. Key border crossings have remained closed since October 2025. Islamic State-Khorasan (ISKP), weakened by Taliban pressure according to International Crisis Group, retains capacity for targeted attacks: on April 10, 2026 gunmen killed at least 11 Shia civilians near a shrine in Herat. The armed resistance (NRF and allied groups) remains at a low-intensity harassment level without territorial control.