The Middle East After Gaza: Fragmentation, Deterrence and Strategic Drift

The war in Gaza has not only reshaped the balance of power between Israel and Hamas, but has accelerated a broader process of regional fragmentation that will define Middle Eastern security dynamics for years to come. While immediate attention remains focused on military operations and humanitarian costs, the longer-term implications of the conflict extend far beyond Gaza itself. Deterrence mechanisms are eroding, non-state actors are gaining strategic depth, and regional powers are recalibrating their risk tolerance in ways that challenge existing security frameworks.