Regional stability and the future of multilateralism

Regional stability and the future of multilateralism are two sides of the same coin in the contemporary international system. Without credible multilateral mechanisms, coordination among states fragments; without regional stability, those same mechanisms lack fertile ground to operate.

The current context

Recent geopolitical tensions have highlighted the limitations of existing institutions. Global governance is undergoing a period of deep questioning, not only regarding its effectiveness, but also its perceived legitimacy.

The legitimacy of multilateral institutions depends less on their formal design than on their capacity to channel reasonable expectations from states and societies.

Implications for foreign policy

Foreign policy makers face a growing dilemma: invest in multilateral structures that show signs of erosion, or prioritise minilateral arrangements and ad hoc alliances. Both strategies entail risks and opportunities that warrant careful analysis.

Plausible scenarios

In the coming years, institutional reform initiatives are likely to coexist with informal coordination practices among smaller groups of actors. The net result for regional stability will depend largely on whether those minilateral arrangements articulate with — or fully replace — existing frameworks.

This piece is part of the Expert Commentary series at International Affairs Watch. Its purpose is to provide qualified perspectives that contribute to public debate on international affairs.