China-Taiwan military confrontation; escalation risks
Last update: Feb 9, 2026
Rhetorical and military escalation with coercion and economic disruption risk.
The conflict as process. Each event: context, actors and consequences.
The Sudanese civil war did not begin in April 2023, although that is when the world took notice. Its roots lie in the failed transition that followed the fall of Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, after three decades of dictatorship and mass protests that united civilians and the military against the regime.
What followed was a democratization experiment doomed from the start. The Transitional Sovereign Council, composed of civilians and the military, never resolved the fundamental contradiction: who would control the guns during the democratization process? While civilians from the FFC (Forces for Freedom and Change) tried to build institutions, the generals consolidated economic and military power.
The tension between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary militia commanded by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo "Hemedti", became the axis of the crisis. The RSF, born from Darfur militias and used by Bashir to crush rebellions, had transformed into a parallel army with its own funding (Darfur gold, UAE support) and tribal loyalties distinct from the state.
The tipping point came with the negotiation over integrating the RSF into the regular army. For Burhan, dissolving the RSF meant recovering the state monopoly on force. For Hemedti, integration meant losing autonomy and possibly facing war crimes trials in Darfur. The negotiation became a countdown to war.
On 15 April 2023, fighting erupted simultaneously in Khartoum, Darfur and other cities. What initially seemed a quick coup became a war of attrition. The SAF controls the formal state apparatus (airports, ministries), but the RSF dominates entire neighbourhoods of the capital and the gold trade.
The regionalization of the conflict complicates any solution. Egypt backs the SAF (institutionalism, state control), while the United Arab Emirates maintains financial ties with the RSF (commercial interests, counter-insurgency). The war has become a proxy for influence in the Horn of Africa and control of the Red Sea coast, vital for global trade.
Who holds power, who fights whom. Click to view the dossier.
The humanitarian crisis is not a byproduct — it is a central feature of the conflict.
Resolutions, sanctions, peace processes and ongoing investigations.
Projections for 6–12 months. Triggers, indicators and implications.
Continued US commitment Taiwan defense modernization China avoids escalation gamble Economic interdependence
Political change in Taiwan toward independence US commitment perceived as weakening China feels opportunity window closing
Economic pressure campaign Hybrid warfare intensification Taiwan political instability
conflictDetail.indicators.subtitle
Number and size of PLA exercises around Taiwan; aircraft sorties; naval vessel movements
Record 2500+ PLA sorties in 2024; exercises normalizing; escalating complexity and scale
Military aid packages, training, weapons transfers, official visits
Increased arms sales ($20B+ annually); Biden verbal commitments controversial; ambiguity in policy
TSMC production capacity; global chip supply dependence on Taiwan; alternative sourcing
Taiwan produces 60%+ of world semiconductors; conflict would devastate global economy
Election integrity, civil discourse, government legitimacy, public confidence
2024 elections held successfully; public support for defense varies; political consensus on sovereignty strong
Japan, Australia, ASEAN positions; US-China strategic competition; QUAD coordination
QUAD members increasingly vocal on Taiwan; Japan and Australia upgrading security postures
Data derives from US intelligence sources, Taiwan defense reports, regional think tank analyses. Military exercise numbers based on verified 2024 data. Scenarios are expert assessments of geopolitical risks.
Taiwan Strait tension represents one of the world's most critical geopolitical risks. With unprecedented PLA military exercises, a democratic Taiwan committed to sovereignty, and ambiguous yet persistent US commitment, the potential for conflict is real. Military conflict would devastate the global economy given Taiwan's semiconductor dependence.
International Affairs Watch