Amplified nuclear rivalry and recent military standoffs
Last update: Feb 9, 2026
Persistent risk of military and diplomatic escalation with regional impact.
The conflict as process. Each event: context, actors and consequences.
Who holds power, who fights whom. Click to view the dossier.
The humanitarian crisis is not a byproduct — it is a central feature of the conflict.
Resolutions, sanctions, peace processes and ongoing investigations.
Projections for 6–12 months. Triggers, indicators and implications.
Continuation of Kashmir-based terrorist activity Military leadership asserting nationalist agendas Domestic politics favoring hardline positions in both countries
Terrorist attack with 500+ casualties in major Indian city Pakistan military exercises perceived as preparation for offensive Breakdown of diplomatic back channels
Change in political leadership favoring engagement Economic crisis making conflict too costly International pressure including from China or US
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Troop levels, equipment positioning, and readiness status along Line of Control
Both nations maintain elevated deployments post-2019. 2025 military exercises larger than usual. Winter deployments in contested areas intensifying.
Number of major terrorist incidents targeting Indian security forces and civilians
2025 saw 150+ attacks, up 40% from 2024. January 2025 attack on military convoy killed 20+. Pattern suggests increased militant activity.
Missile tests, warhead developments, and strategic force modernization
India tested BrahMos cruise missile in 2025; Pakistan conducted Babur missile test. Both nations expanding warhead arsenals and delivery systems.
Frequency of high-level talks, informal negotiations, and military-to-military dialogue
Minimal diplomatic engagement in 2025. Cricket series suspended. Trade relations curtailed. Military hotlines remain but rarely used effectively.
Military equipment acquisitions from external sources; defense spending increases
India increased defense spending 8% in 2025; Pakistan 12%. Both acquiring advanced aircraft, naval vessels, and air defense systems. Arms race accelerating.
Data on India-Pakistan strategic tensions comes from international military analysis, security intelligence reports, independent media records, government statements, and defense expert analysis. Death figures primarily reflect military and civilian casualties from terrorist attacks and retaliatory operations, not total armed conflict figures. Nuclear capability numbers are based on expert estimates due to official opacity. Analysis acknowledges difficulties in obtaining verified information in highly classified security situations.
India-Pakistan strategic tensions represent one of the world's most dangerous rivalries, primarily due to the nuclear dimension. Unlike the Kashmir territorial dispute, these broader tensions encompass military competition, nuclear weapons development, and strategic deterrence. Recent terrorist attacks and military retaliations in 2024-2025 have elevated the risk of inadvertent escalation toward direct armed conflict. Both nations possess growing nuclear capabilities and less transparent deterrence doctrines. Without robust diplomatic channels and with domestic leadership under pressure to adopt nationalist positions, this rivalry will continue generating significant risks to regional stability. The international community has limited capacity to influence outcomes; prevention of escalation depends on mutual restraint between India and Pakistan.
International Affairs Watch