Sudan: Civil War and Humanitarian Collapse
Analysis of actors and power dynamics
Last update: Feb 21, 2026
Conflict overview
Civil war and humanitarian crisis
What you'll find on this page
Conflict Severity Index
IAW methodology — 5 dimensions, 20 sub-indicators
The CSI (Conflict Severity Index) evaluates conflict severity on a 0-100 scale, combining 5 weighted dimensions (0-20 each): military intensity, civilian impact, escalation risk, humanitarian access, and internationalization.
Timeline — Key milestones
A coherent narrative: outbreak, escalation, and current critical point.
Showing 6 critical milestones
Fall of Omar al-Bashir
Mass protests force Omar al-Bashir out after three decades. The military assumes power briefly before a fragile civilian-military power-sharing agreement. The Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) and the Transitional Military Council negotiate a transitional government. SAF and RSF remain dominant; reform stalls.
PoliticsSAF–RSF power struggle
Disagreement over timeline and form of RSF integration into the army. For Burhan, dissolving the RSF means recovering the state monopoly on force. For Hemedti, integration means losing autonomy and possibly facing war crimes trials. Both sides arm and position for conflict. The negotiation becomes a countdown to war.
DiplomacyMilitary coup — Burhan and Hemedti consolidate
Burhan and Hemedti dissolve the civilian component of the transitional government. The power-sharing experiment fails. Civilian leaders are arrested or sidelined. SAF and RSF rule de facto without civilian oversight. The path to democratic transition closes.
PoliticsOutbreak of civil war
Fighting erupts simultaneously in Khartoum, Darfur and other cities. What initially seemed a quick coup becomes a war of attrition. SAF controls the formal state apparatus (airports, ministries); RSF dominates entire neighbourhoods of the capital and the gold trade. Civilian infrastructure is targeted. Mass displacement begins.
ViolenceRegionalization of the conflict
Refugees and armed flows into Chad, South Sudan, Ethiopia. Egypt backs SAF (institutionalism, state control); UAE maintains financial ties with RSF (commercial interests, counter-insurgency). The war becomes a proxy for influence in the Horn of Africa and control of the Red Sea coast.
DiplomacyBattle for Khartoum
Intense urban warfare in the capital. RSF seizes residential areas and strategic points. SAF responds with aerial bombardment and artillery. Hundreds of thousands flee. The city is divided along front lines. Healthcare and basic services collapse.
ViolenceThe origin of the conflict
The Sudanese civil war did not begin in April 2023, although that is when the world took notice. Its roots lie in the failed transition that followed the fall of Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, after three decades of dictatorship and mass protests that united civilians and the military against the regime.
What followed was a democratization experiment doomed from the start. The Transitional Sovereign Council, composed of civilians and the military, never resolved the fundamental contradiction: who would control the guns during the democratization process? While civilians from the FFC (Forces for Freedom and Change) tried to build institutions, the generals consolidated economic and military power.
The tension between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary militia commanded by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo "Hemedti", became the axis of the crisis. The RSF, born from Darfur militias and used by Bashir to crush rebellions, had transformed into a parallel army with its own funding (Darfur gold, UAE support) and tribal loyalties distinct from the state.
The tipping point came with the negotiation over integrating the RSF into the regular army. For Burhan, dissolving the RSF meant recovering the state monopoly on force. For Hemedti, integration meant losing autonomy and possibly facing war crimes trials in Darfur. The negotiation became a countdown to war.
On 15 April 2023, fighting erupted simultaneously in Khartoum, Darfur and other cities. What initially seemed a quick coup became a war of attrition. The SAF controls the formal state apparatus (airports, ministries), but the RSF dominates entire neighbourhoods of the capital and the gold trade.
The regionalization of the conflict complicates any solution. Egypt backs the SAF (institutionalism, state control), while the United Arab Emirates maintains financial ties with the RSF (commercial interests, counter-insurgency). The war has become a proxy for influence in the Horn of Africa and control of the Red Sea coast, vital for global trade.
Actors and power dynamics
Who holds power, who fights whom. Click to view the dossier.
Humanitarian impact
The humanitarian crisis is not a byproduct — it is a central feature of the conflict.
Prospective scenarios
Projections for 6–12 months. Triggers, indicators and implications.
Prolonged fragmentation
High regional impact No durable ceasefire Continued external support to both sides Fragmentation of SAF or RSF
External mediation with limited ceasefire
Moderate Strong international pressure Battlefield stalemate Humanitarian corridors negotiated
Regional spillover
Very high Cross-border incursions Militia attacks on neighbors State collapse in Sudan
Monitoring indicators
conflictDetail.indicators.subtitle
Cross-border arms movements
Flows of weapons and ammunition to SAF or RSF from neighbors or external actors.
Changes in regional alliances
Shifts in which states back which party; new mediators or spoilers.
Collapse of humanitarian corridors
Access denied or attacks on aid; famine and disease spreading.
Intensification of ethnic violence
Targeted attacks, massacres, or forced displacement along ethnic lines.
Sources & methodology
Our analysis is based on open sources and structured assessment. Language is clear and non-academic where possible.
IAW monitors Sudan as a critical case of state collapse, prolonged armed conflict, and humanitarian emergency with systemic regional implications.
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