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IAW Analysis

Political and Institutional Crisis in Venezuela

U.S. intervention, an uncertain transition, and acute economic fragility in a country central to regional stability and energy markets.

Last update: Feb 9, 2026

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Conflict overview

Venezuela faces a prolonged political and institutional crisis with severe economic and humanitarian spillovers, shaped by contested electoral legitimacy, institutional erosion, and international sanctions. In 2025–2026, escalating U.S. pressure tied to counternarcotics claims culminates in military action and an attempted reshaping of domestic power, creating acute uncertainty over governance, security, and control of the energy sector.

What you'll find on this page

Refugees
0
Jan 2026
Food insecurity
0
Jan 2026

Conflict Severity Index

IAW methodology — 5 dimensions, 20 sub-indicators

Declining
0
/100
Medium
2
MIL
8
CIV
6
ESC
12
HUM
11
INT

The CSI (Conflict Severity Index) evaluates conflict severity on a 0-100 scale, combining 5 weighted dimensions (0-20 each): military intensity, civilian impact, escalation risk, humanitarian access, and internationalization.

Timeline — Key phases

The conflict as process. Each event: context, actors and consequences.

Legitimacy crisis and dual power standoff
12018–2019

Legitimacy crisis and dual power standoff

Contested elections and divided international recognition

Context

Nicolás Maduro’s 2018 reelection was widely criticized due to irregularities and opposition boycotts. In January 2019, the National Assembly declared his presidency illegitimate, and Juan Guaidó proclaimed himself interim president, creating a dual power scenario with divided international recognition.

Consequences

Expanded international sanctions, financial isolation, deepening economic collapse, and acceleration of mass migration outflows.

22020–2022

Economic adjustment and de facto dollarization

Partial stabilization without structural reform

Context

After years of hyperinflation and economic collapse, the government relaxed price controls, allowed dollar transactions, and reduced monetary expansion. The economy showed limited stabilization but remained structurally fragile and unequal.

Consequences

Decline in extreme hyperinflation, persistent high poverty, and consolidation of a hybrid informal economic model.

32023–2024

Renewed electoral crisis and legitimacy erosion

Contested elections and renewed sanctions

Context

In 2024, the opposition chose to participate in elections, but fraud allegations and restrictions on opposition candidates led to strong international criticism. Some external actors recognized alternative results.

Consequences

Reimposition of sanctions, further erosion of institutional legitimacy, and rising tensions with the United States.

4Sept 2025 – Dic 2025

Maritime escalation and maximum pressure

Interdictions and regional military deployment

Context

The U.S. administration intensified its “maximum pressure” policy, linking the Venezuelan government to narcotrafficking networks. Maritime interdictions and increased military deployment in the Caribbean followed.

Consequences

Increased militarization of the crisis, heightened energy volatility, and legal debate over the use of force.

5Enero 2026 – Presente

Maduro’s capture and uncertain transition

External intervention and political reconfiguration

Context

In January 2026, U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro in a military operation in Caracas. Delcy Rodríguez assumed as interim president amid external pressure and energy sector restructuring.

Consequences

Opening of a politically fragile transition, externally conditioned institutional realignment, and ongoing economic uncertainty.

The origin of the conflict

The crisis in Venezuela originated from a combination of structural, economic, and political factors that intensified starting in 2015. The collapse of global oil prices, poor macroeconomic management, extreme dependence on oil revenues, and widespread corruption rapidly weakened the national economy. These dynamics triggered hyperinflation, shortages of basic goods, and the breakdown of public services, leading to widespread social discontent and mass protests.

Politically, the opposition’s victory in the 2015 National Assembly deepened the clash between branches of government, with judicial decisions curtailing legislative authority and expanding executive control. The 2018 presidential election, widely criticized for irregularities, escalated internal and external legitimacy disputes, leading to the 2019 self-proclamation of an interim president and a divided international recognition. Over time, economic collapse and political repression fueled a massive population exodus.

This backdrop of institutional erosion, contested electoral credibility, humanitarian crisis, and international pressure laid the foundation for the prolonged conflict that continues into 2026, culminating in an external confrontation phase marked by U.S. intervention and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro.

Actors and power dynamics

Who holds power, who fights whom. Click to view the dossier.

Humanitarian impact

The humanitarian crisis is not a byproduct — it is a central feature of the conflict.

Migrants
8M+
Political Instability
Alta
Economic Crisis
Crítica

International response

Resolutions, sanctions, peace processes and ongoing investigations.

Active sanctions

Prospective scenarios

Projections for 6–12 months. Triggers, indicators and implications.

Probability: Medium

Stabilized transition under external supervision

Moderate Trigger 1 pending Trigger 2 pending

Probability: Medium-High

Hybrid continuity with limited reforms

Moderate Trigger 1 pending Trigger 2 pending

Probability: Medium

Institutional fragmentation and internal power struggle

High Trigger 1 pending Trigger 2 pending

Monitoring indicators

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Indicator 1 - Pending Development

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Key indicators will be identified as analysis develops

Placeholder indicator. Data collection in progress.

Indicator 2 - Pending Development

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Key indicators will be identified as analysis develops

Placeholder indicator. Data collection in progress.

Sources & methodology

Methodology pending: This profile is in initial development. As research is completed, full documentation of data sources, analysis methods, and information limitations will be provided.

This conflict profile is being developed by International Affairs Watch analysts. As research is completed, all data, scenarios, and indicators will be updated with verified information and in-depth analysis. Users are invited to return once the profile is fully developed.

International Affairs Watch

CSI
0
/100
Medium
Declining