Political and Institutional Crisis in Venezuela
U.S. intervention, an uncertain transition, and acute economic fragility in a country central to regional stability and energy markets.
Last update: Feb 9, 2026
Overview
The crisis in Venezuela originated from a combination of structural, economic, and political factors that intensified starting in 2015. The collapse of global oil prices, poor macroeconomic management, extreme dependence on oil revenues, and widespread corruption rapidly weakened the national economy. These dynamics triggered hyperinflation, shortages of basic goods, and the breakdown of public services, leading to widespread social discontent and mass protests.
Politically, the opposition’s victory in the 2015 National Assembly deepened the clash between branches of government, with judicial decisions curtailing legislative authority and expanding executive control. The 2018 presidential election, widely criticized for irregularities, escalated internal and external legitimacy disputes, leading to the 2019 self-proclamation of an interim president and a divided international recognition. Over time, economic collapse and political repression fueled a massive population exodus.
This backdrop of institutional erosion, contested electoral credibility, humanitarian crisis, and international pressure laid the foundation for the prolonged conflict that continues into 2026, culminating in an external confrontation phase marked by U.S. intervention and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro.
The humanitarian crisis is not a byproduct — it is a central feature of the conflict.
Migrants
More than eight million Venezuelans have left the country since 2015.
Political Instability
Prolonged institutional legitimacy crisis and contested elections.
Economic Crisis
Hyperinflation, de facto dollarization, and prolonged productive collapse.
Food insecurity (IPC) — approx. share
Illustrative; see methodology.
Internal displacement (millions)
Model series (OCHA/UNHCR).
Forces in conflict
Two fronts: recognized power and armed factions. This grouping is indicative and may be updated as the situation evolves.
State & coalition
Recognized institutions, security forces and formal allies
Nicolás Maduro
State • Presidente (2013–enero 2026)
Status · Active
Presidente (2013–enero 2026)
Delcy Rodríguez
State • Vicepresidenta → Presidenta interina (2026– )
Status · Active
Vicepresidenta → Presidenta interina (2026– )
Fuerzas Armadas Nacionales Bolivarianas (FANB)
State • Actor clave de estabilidad interna
Status · Active
Actor clave de estabilidad interna
Edmundo González Urrutia
Political • Candidato presidencial 2024
Status · Active
Candidato presidencial 2024
Estados Unidos (Administración Trump 2025–2026)
State (External) • Actor de presión e intervención
Status · Active
Actor de presión e intervención
U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM)
State (Military) • Implementación operativa
Status · Active
Implementación operativa
Armed opposition & factions
Non-state groups, militias and relevant external sponsors
María Corina Machado
Political (Non-state political actor) • Líder opositora
Status · Active
Líder opositora
IAW methodology — 5 dimensions, 20 sub-indicators
Conflict Severity Index
What if…?
Adjust the drivers to simulate alternative geopolitical scenarios and see the impact on the Conflict Severity Index.
- Military Intensity2.0
- Civilian Impact8.0
- Escalation Risk6.0
- Humanitarian Access12.0
- Internationalization11.0
Projected CSI
39
LOWTimeline — Key phases
The conflict as process. Each event: context, actors and consequences.
Contested elections and divided international recognition
Legitimacy crisis and dual power standoff
Nicolás Maduro’s 2018 reelection was widely criticized due to irregularities and opposition boycotts. In January 2019, the National Assembly declared his presidency illegitimate, and Juan Guaidó proclaimed himself interim president, creating a dual power scenario with divided international recognition.
Partial stabilization without structural reform
Economic adjustment and de facto dollarization
After years of hyperinflation and economic collapse, the government relaxed price controls, allowed dollar transactions, and reduced monetary expansion. The economy showed limited stabilization but remained structurally fragile and unequal.
Contested elections and renewed sanctions
Renewed electoral crisis and legitimacy erosion
In 2024, the opposition chose to participate in elections, but fraud allegations and restrictions on opposition candidates led to strong international criticism. Some external actors recognized alternative results.
Interdictions and regional military deployment
Maritime escalation and maximum pressure
The U.S. administration intensified its “maximum pressure” policy, linking the Venezuelan government to narcotrafficking networks. Maritime interdictions and increased military deployment in the Caribbean followed.
External intervention and political reconfiguration
Maduro’s capture and uncertain transition
In January 2026, U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro in a military operation in Caracas. Delcy Rodríguez assumed as interim president amid external pressure and energy sector restructuring.
Methodology pending: This profile is in initial development. As research is completed, full documentation of data sources, analysis methods, and information limitations will be provided.
ACLED · UN OCHA · OSINT
Key sources
This conflict profile is being developed by International Affairs Watch analysts. As research is completed, all data, scenarios, and indicators will be updated with verified information and in-depth analysis. Users are invited to return once the profile is fully developed.
International Affairs Watch