Collapse of public order, territorial expansion of armed groups and fragile political transition in the most vulnerable state in the Western Hemisphere.
Last update: Feb 9, 2026
Gang violence and institutional collapse causing severe humanitarian impacts and disruption of basic services.
IAW methodology — 5 dimensions, 20 sub-indicators
The CSI (Conflict Severity Index) evaluates conflict severity on a 0-100 scale, combining 5 weighted dimensions (0-20 each): military intensity, civilian impact, escalation risk, humanitarian access, and internationalization.
The conflict as process. Each event: context, actors and consequences.
Who holds power, who fights whom. Click to view the dossier.
The humanitarian crisis is not a byproduct — it is a central feature of the conflict.
Resolutions, sanctions, peace processes and ongoing investigations.
Projections for 6–12 months. Triggers, indicators and implications.
Sustained Kenyan military operations Effective police professionalization Gang leader negotiations Improved economic opportunities for youth
Gang network resilience Disease outbreaks Economic collapse International disengagement
Electoral fraud or cancellation Factional violence Institutional breakdown Warlord emergence
conflictDetail.indicators.subtitle
Weekly homicide rates and gang activity in Port-au-Prince and other major cities
MSS operations reducing violence in Port-au-Prince but gang activity shifting to provincial areas
Percentage of population reached by food assistance and medical aid
Gang violence and insecurity continue blocking humanitarian operations in many areas
Number of people facing severe food insecurity (IPC Phase 3-5)
Food insecurity affecting 5.2M people; critical malnutrition levels especially in children
Number of internally displaced persons and emigration patterns
IDP population at 750K; boat departures to US increasing despite dangers
Training programs and recruitment of Haitian National Police
PNH recruitment ongoing but corruption concerns and gang infiltration risks remain
Data presented in this analysis derives from verified sources including OCHA, IOM, UNHCR, and human rights reports. Statistics reflect estimates as of January 2026. Scenario analyses are based on expert assessments of regional security dynamics.
Haiti's crisis represents one of the Western Hemisphere's most critical humanitarian challenges. With 5.2 million people facing food insecurity and 750,000 internally displaced, the situation requires a sustained and committed international response. The success of Kenya-led security operations will be crucial for long-term stabilization.
International Affairs Watch