Back to Data
IAW Analysis

Syrian Civil War

Assad regime collapse after 13 years of war, complex post-Assad transition

Last update: Feb 9, 2026

Scroll to explore

Conflict overview

Protracted conflict with pockets of violence and persistent humanitarian crisis.

What you'll find on this page

Estimated deaths
0
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, UN OCHA, multiple documentation projects (2011-2024) · Dec 2024
Internally displaced
0
UNHCR, Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre · Nov 2024
Refugees
0
UNHCR Regional Bureau for Middle East, North Africa · Nov 2024
Food insecurity
0
UN World Food Programme (WFP), Vulnerability Assessment and Monitoring · Oct 2024

Timeline — Key phases

The conflict as process. Each event: context, actors and consequences.

12011-2012

Arab Spring Uprising & Military Crackdown

Peaceful protests escalate to armed rebellion against Assad regime

Context

Syrian Arab Spring protests begin in Daraa, demanding democratic reforms. Assad regime responds with military force, torture, arbitrary detention. Hundreds killed in initial crackdowns. Defections from military increase; armed opposition coalesces into Free Syrian Army (FSA). Conflict quickly transitions from civil protest to armed insurgency.

Consequences

Militarization of uprising; thousands displaced; sectarian tensions rise; international attention intensifies; formation of various opposition groups

22013-2015

Internationalization & Proxy War Escalation

US, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey all deploy military assets; chemical weapons use

Context

Assad regime begins chemical weapons attacks; August 2013 Ghouta chemical attack kills 1,000+, nearly triggers US military intervention. Russia and Iran dramatically increase military support to Assad. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, US support various opposition groups (many becoming radicalized). ISIS emerges as major actor in Syria, capturing territory. Conflict becomes geopolitical battleground for regional and global powers.

Consequences

Massive international military presence; opposition fragmentation; humanitarian catastrophe accelerates; millions become displaced; sectarian violence intensifies

32015-2020

Russian Intervention & Assad Regime Consolidation

Russian airstrikes turn tide toward Assad; opposition fragmentation deepens

Context

September 2015 Russian military intervention with airstrikes dramatically escalates Assad's military advantage. Combined with Iranian ground forces and Hezbollah fighters, Assad forces recapture major cities and territory. Opposition becomes increasingly fragmented; many groups destroyed or co-opted. Humanitarian situation deteriorates catastrophically. US-backed Kurdish forces (SDF) control northeast; Turkish military operations target Kurdish positions.

Consequences

Assad military advantage becomes overwhelming; stalemate in some regions; opposition collapse accelerates; humanitarian crisis reaches epic proportions; 5+ million refugees

42020-2024

Assad Regime Normalization & December 2024 Collapse

Arab League readmission followed by unexpected rapid regime collapse

Context

2020-2023: Assad regime gradually normalized regionally; Arab League readmission in May 2023 despite ongoing crimes. International community accepts Assad's survival. However, December 2024 sees shocking rapid collapse of Assad regime as opposition forces launch offensive. HTS-led forces capture Aleppo, Damascus; Assad flees to Russia. Entire military structure collapses. Transition government led by HTS begins assuming control. Post-Assad Syria uncertain; international concern about HTS Islamist governance; reconstruction and accountability questions paramount.

Consequences

Complete regime collapse; leadership flight; military dissolution; international uncertainty; transition government establishes authority; accountability mechanisms needed; reconstruction planning begins

The origin of the conflict

Actors and power dynamics

Who holds power, who fights whom. Click to view the dossier.

Humanitarian impact

The humanitarian crisis is not a byproduct — it is a central feature of the conflict.

Internally Displaced
9M+
Cross-border Refugees
3M+
Food Insecure (IPC 3+)
25M
Estimated Deaths
150K+

International response

Resolutions, sanctions, peace processes and ongoing investigations.

UN Security Council Resolutions

Active sanctions

Peace processes & mediation

Investigations & accountability

Peacekeeping missions

Prospective scenarios

Projections for 6–12 months. Triggers, indicators and implications.

Probability:

Fragile Transition with Regional Tensions

HTS governance moderate success Regional powers respect borders ISIS contained but not eliminated Slow reconstruction begins

Probability:

Democratic Transition & International Reconstruction

HTS political evolution International aid commitment Regional cooperation frameworks Refugee incentive structures

Probability:

Failed Transition & Regional Conflict Resurgence

HTS authoritarian consolidation Turkish military escalation ISIS resurgence Regional power fragmentation

Monitoring indicators

conflictDetail.indicators.subtitle

HTS Governance Inclusivity

conflictDetail.indicators.trend.stable

Degree of power-sharing with other opposition factions and minorities in new Syrian government

Initial signals mixed; HTS making conciliatory gestures but retains dominant position. Minority representation limited. Requires close monitoring.

Refugee Return Rates

conflictDetail.indicators.trend.worsening

Monthly Syrian refugee returns from neighboring countries and diaspora

Initial slow returns (~10,000/month); incentives for repatriation emerging. Economic reconstruction critical for acceleration.

ISIS Operational Capacity

conflictDetail.indicators.trend.worsening

Documented ISIS attacks and territorial holdings in Syria

ISIS cells active in eastern desert; estimated 5,000-10,000 fighters. Recent attacks increasing; resurgence risk moderate to high.

Turkish Military Operations

conflictDetail.indicators.trend.stable

Turkish military activity in northern Syria targeting Kurdish forces

Turkish operations ongoing; PKK/YPG designated terrorist organizations by Turkey. Cross-border operations continue; Kurdish-Turkish tensions persist.

Reconstruction Progress

conflictDetail.indicators.trend.worsening

Infrastructure repair, humanitarian access, economic indicators

Reconstruction beginning in regime-controlled areas; slow progress. International aid pledges needed. War damage estimated at $400B+.

Sources & methodology

Syrian data sourced from Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, OCHA, UNHCR, ICG reports, and academic conflict analysis. Death figures (617,000) reflect documentation since March 2011. Current displacement numbers reflect post-regime-collapse crisis.

Assad regime's shocking December 2024 collapse marks a crucial inflection point in Syrian history. Thirteen years of civil war have left a devastated country with millions displaced and collapsed infrastructure. Post-Assad transition success will depend on HTS's inclusive governance, international reconstruction support, and regional willingness to respect Syrian sovereignty.

International Affairs Watch