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IAW Analysis

Yemeni Civil War

Houthi vs. government conflict, Saudi coalition, humanitarian catastrophe

Last update: Feb 9, 2026

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Conflict overview

Protracted conflict with severe humanitarian impacts and regional escalation risk.

What you'll find on this page

Estimated deaths
0
UN OCHA, Credibility Lab, World Health Organization mortality estimates (direct + indirect) · Nov 2024
Internally displaced
0
UNHCR, Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre · Oct 2024
Refugees
0
UNHCR Regional Bureau for Middle East, North Africa · Nov 2024
Food insecurity
0
UN World Food Programme (WFP), Integrated Food Security Phase Classification · Oct 2024

Timeline — Key phases

The conflict as process. Each event: context, actors and consequences.

12014-2015

Houthi Rise & International Coalition Intervention

Houthis capture capital Sanaa; Saudi coalition launches massive air campaign

Context

Houthi movement captures Sanaa in September 2014, ousting internationally recognized government. Saudi Arabia, leading coalition of Gulf states and international partners, launches massive air campaign in February 2015 to restore government. Operation Decisive Storm begins with comprehensive bombing of Houthi-controlled territory. Blockade instituted on ports and borders.

Consequences

Rapid humanitarian deterioration; thousands killed in air campaign; displacement begins; blockade creates humanitarian access crisis; infrastructure destroyed

22015-2018

Stalemate & Humanitarian Collapse

Conflict settles into grinding stalemate; civilian suffering reaches critical levels

Context

Air campaign fails to defeat Houthis decisively. Ground operations slow and inconclusive. Conflict becomes protracted stalemate with no military victor emerging. Humanitarian situation catastrophically deteriorates. Blockade and fighting destroy healthcare system; cholera outbreaks kill thousands. Food insecurity becomes acute; malnutrition epidemic. Houthis consolidate control over northern population centers; government controls coastal areas but faces stalemate.

Consequences

Humanitarian catastrophe accelerates; 8+ million food insecure; cholera kills tens of thousands; economy collapses; currency devalues; international aid insufficient

32018-2022

Ceasefire Attempts & Fragile Stability

UN-mediated ceasefire agreements provide partial relief; tensions remain high

Context

UN Special Envoy Martin Griffiths negotiates ceasefire agreement (December 2018, Stockholm Agreement). Limited implementation; sporadic fighting continues. Humanitarian access improves marginally but blockade continues. Ceasefire largely holds but remains extremely fragile. Saudi coalition's air campaign continues sporadically. Houthis consolidate northern control. Government fragmentation increases with southern separatist movement emergence.

Consequences

Partial humanitarian relief; ceasefire violations documented; underlying political divisions unresolved; stalemate persists; economic crisis continues

42022-2024

Red Sea Escalation & Renewed Regional Tensions

Houthi naval attacks disrupt global shipping; renewed military posturing

Context

Following Israel-Hamas conflict escalation (October 2023), Houthis escalate Red Sea attacks on shipping, claiming support for Palestinians. U.S. and international naval presence increases. Multiple shipping vessels attacked or damaged; insurance premiums skyrocket. Global trade disruptions. New coalition operations begin against Houthi maritime capabilities. Renewed airstrikes in response to attacks. Humanitarian situation remains dire; 80% of population aid-dependent. Political resolution remains elusive.

Consequences

Red Sea shipping crisis; global economic impacts; renewed military operations; humanitarian situation unchanged; political solution remains distant

The origin of the conflict

The Sudanese civil war did not begin in April 2023, although that is when the world took notice. Its roots lie in the failed transition that followed the fall of Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, after three decades of dictatorship and mass protests that united civilians and the military against the regime.

What followed was a democratization experiment doomed from the start. The Transitional Sovereign Council, composed of civilians and the military, never resolved the fundamental contradiction: who would control the guns during the democratization process? While civilians from the FFC (Forces for Freedom and Change) tried to build institutions, the generals consolidated economic and military power.

The tension between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary militia commanded by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo "Hemedti", became the axis of the crisis. The RSF, born from Darfur militias and used by Bashir to crush rebellions, had transformed into a parallel army with its own funding (Darfur gold, UAE support) and tribal loyalties distinct from the state.

The tipping point came with the negotiation over integrating the RSF into the regular army. For Burhan, dissolving the RSF meant recovering the state monopoly on force. For Hemedti, integration meant losing autonomy and possibly facing war crimes trials in Darfur. The negotiation became a countdown to war.

On 15 April 2023, fighting erupted simultaneously in Khartoum, Darfur and other cities. What initially seemed a quick coup became a war of attrition. The SAF controls the formal state apparatus (airports, ministries), but the RSF dominates entire neighbourhoods of the capital and the gold trade.

The regionalization of the conflict complicates any solution. Egypt backs the SAF (institutionalism, state control), while the United Arab Emirates maintains financial ties with the RSF (commercial interests, counter-insurgency). The war has become a proxy for influence in the Horn of Africa and control of the Red Sea coast, vital for global trade.

Actors and power dynamics

Who holds power, who fights whom. Click to view the dossier.

Humanitarian impact

The humanitarian crisis is not a byproduct — it is a central feature of the conflict.

Internally Displaced
9M+
Cross-border Refugees
3M+
Food Insecure (IPC 3+)
25M
Estimated Deaths
150K+

International response

Resolutions, sanctions, peace processes and ongoing investigations.

UN Security Council Resolutions

Active sanctions

Peace processes & mediation

Investigations & accountability

Peacekeeping missions

Prospective scenarios

Projections for 6–12 months. Triggers, indicators and implications.

Probability:

Continued Stalemate & Humanitarian Crisis

Military balance maintained International naval presence stabilizes shipping Humanitarian aid flows minimally No breakthrough negotiations

Probability:

Negotiated Political Settlement

Saudi Arabian policy shift Houthi negotiating flexibility International mediation commitment Regional power reconciliation

Probability:

Escalation & Regional Conflict Expansion

Houthi weapons escalation Direct US military escalation Saudi re-engagement decision Broader Middle East conflict involvement

Monitoring indicators

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Houthi Naval Attack Frequency

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Monthly documented Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and international naval vessels

Attacks remain active; 2-5 incidents monthly. Houthis claim coordination with Palestinian resistance; scale and sophistication suggest Iranian support.

Saudi Coalition Ceasefire Adherence

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Violations of UN-mediated ceasefire agreements by Saudi-led coalition

Sporadic violations reported; overall ceasefire largely holds. Red Sea escalation driving renewed tensions but formal truce remains.

Food Insecurity Prevalence

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Percentage of Yemeni population experiencing acute hunger (IPC 3/4 or higher)

17.1 million food insecure (60% of population); 10.3M in emergency/famine conditions. Blockade and conflict primary drivers.

Cholera Outbreak Incidence

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Monthly documented cholera cases and deaths

Healthcare system collapse drives disease spread. Hundreds of suspected cases monthly. Vaccine availability limited.

Red Sea Shipping Disruption Index

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Shipping reroutes, insurance premium increases, vessel diversions due to Houthi threats

Significant global trade impact; insurance premiums up 200-400%; alternate routes add weeks to transit. Economic impact substantial.

Sources & methodology

Yemen data sourced from OCHA, UNHCR, WFP, WHO, Credibility Lab reports, and ACLED monitoring. Death estimates include both direct combat deaths and indirect deaths (disease, malnutrition) based on excess mortality estimates. Food insecurity figures reflect IPC classification.

Yemen's civil war represents the 21st century's worst global humanitarian crisis, with 17+ million people needing assistance. Without credible political solution, the conflict will remain in prolonged stalemate, Red Sea attacks will continue disrupting global commerce, and Yemeni civilians will face systematic starvation, healthcare collapse, and immense suffering.

International Affairs Watch